Following 2 weeks of good results, last week saw the first frustrating set of results, with only 2 out of 7 selections from last week’s previews winning. This wasn’t helped by Exeter throwing away a lead in the final 10 minutes and Hartlepool capitulating a 2-0 advantage with 20 minutes left. Nevertheless, we are looking for improvement this week, so on to this week’s selections.
Following a review of the fixtures, there are fewer games which catch my eye this weekend. Unquestionably the feature match of the weekend sees Manchester City host a resurgent Chelsea. The price of 1.40 (2/5) on Manchester City reflects this, which is the longest odds for them in a Premier League home match since they faced Chelsea in February 2019. City were 4-0 up inside 25 minutes that day, and while it is expected this match will be much closer, no bet is advised.
The selection for the week comes from The Vitality Stadium, where Bournemouth host Wolverhampton. Wolverhampton has not yet hit the heights of their excellent campaign last season, where they qualified for the Europa League. However, following a slow start to the season, their form has improved significantly in recent weeks. Their last 2 away games saw them win at Manchester City, and draw against Arsenal. Today’s match at Bournemouth should prove less challenging.
Bournemouth have made a solid start to the season, and sit in the cluster of teams in mid-table. While there are no major red flags in their form, they have not made the most of their games at home, only managing draws with struggling Norwich and West Ham. Given Wolverhampton are available at odds of 2.60 (8/5), there is good value in backing Wolverhampton to win.
Huddersfield saw a 7 match unbeaten streak end last week at Preston. However, their form has been significantly better since Danny Cowley took charge in early September. Their previous 4 home matches, all against teams in the bottom half of the table, have netted 2 wins and 2 draws. This has seen them edge away from the relegation zone, up to 19th.
Their opponents today are Birmingham, who sit 13th in the table. They were picked against 3 weeks ago when they travelled to Cardiff and lost 4-2, and they are picked against again for similar reasons. They perform stronger at St Andrews than they do on the road; 6 of their 8 away matches have returned defeats. Huddersfield are available at 2.50 (6/4) to continue this streak and are selected to do so.
The only other match that catches the eye is Stoke vs Wigan. Stoke have recently appointed Michael O’Neill to replace Nathan Jones. While he made a winning start 2 weeks ago at Barnsley, they face a trickier test against Wigan. However, the odds available on Stoke are a very short 1.70 (7/10), and it appears the market has overreacted to the early success. While Wigan’s tendency to concede late goals may be exploited, it is worth considering backing Wigan as a double chance bet, at around 2.20 (6/5).
The strongest selection of the week comes from Kingsmeadow, where AFC Wimbledon host Gillingham. AFC Wimbledon currently sit in the relegation zone on goal difference, with 13 points from 17 games. However, their home form has improved significantly, with 7 points taken from their last 3 home matches. They face Gillingham, who sit comfortably in midtable, 8 points off the relegation zone, and 6 points off the play-offs.
One contributing factor is FA Cup replays, played in midweek. While AFC Wimbledon suffered a deflating 2-0 loss over 90 minutes to Doncaster, Gillingham played extra time before coming out on top against Sunderland. This could well have an effect on this Saturday’s game, especially given the high pressing style of Steve Evans’ teams off the ball.
Furthermore, Gillingham have struggled to score goals away from home this season, only scoring 6 in 8 matches. As a result, it would be no surprise to see AFC Wimbledon win this game without conceding, and are taken to Win to nil. This is on offer at around 5.0 (4/1).
One of last week’s selections was Cambridge at Walsall. Cambridge did not recover from a poor start, falling behind in the first minute and conceding a second after 10 minutes, before falling 2-1. However, they are going to be part of the selections again, for similar reasons. Their away form has been more than adequate, with half their wins away from home, against a tough schedule of teams faced away from home.
Carlisle is struggling this season, sitting in 20th position. They are currently managerless having sacked Ryan Pressley last week and have lost 4 of their 9 games at Brunton Park. I would expect to see Cambridge as marginal favourites in this match. However, Cambridge is available at 3.00 (2/1) to win, and are good value at this price.
The prices quoted in the analysis are from Sportingbet. Sportingbet is the world’s leading Sports betting, Casino, Poker and Games provider. Sign up today with this link to get a risk free £10 bet. As always, the prices quoted in the article were correct at the time of writing and may have fluctuated since.
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