Last weeks selections performed well, with two of the four longer odds picks being successful, and the odds-on shot comfortably winning. Overall, the week was profitable. This week’s selections mainly involve shorter odds, with the picks and analysis below.
Another week of fixtures in the Premier League, with the majority of matches involving significant odds on favourites. It would be a surprise to see Liverpool, Leicester or Chelsea fail to win given their opponents poor form. Still, there is certainly no value in backing them to be victorious at such short odds. The only match in which the favourite appears vulnerable is Southampton, who have struggled at home this season. However, it would be a stretch to back West Ham as a selection, who have only won once in their last ten matches.
Burnley have been a regular selection in the column, and today is no exception. Although Burnley did not beat Crystal Palace two weeks ago, they are favoured here. Overall, their home form has been solid, they have won 4 and lost 4 of their eight home matches. The four defeats have all been against teams in the top half and stronger teams than Newcastle.
Newcastle have been a surprise team over the last two months, only losing one of their previous seven matches. Away from home, they have recorded surprise wins at Tottenham Hotspur and Sheffield United, although they have lost five times overall away from home.
Overall, Newcastle has struggled to score, with a large proportion of their goals coming from set-pieces. This strength plays into Burnley’s hands, as although the teams in the top four have scored easily against them, they have conceded two goals in five games against teams outside the top four. The odds on Burnley are currently 23/20, and anything over 3/4 would represent good value on Newcastle to win.
Derby have settled as a mid-table team in their first season without Frank Lampard. They have significant home / road splits. They have not won away from Pride Park since the opening day of the season, losing their last 5. However, their form at home could not be more different, as they have not lost since their second home game. They have drawn their last two, winning their five home games before that.
They host Millwall on Saturday. Millwall has enjoyed a renaissance since appointing Gary Rowett in October, only losing once in nine games under his management. However, despite avoiding defeat against Nottingham Forest and Bristol City last time, they have generally faced a comfortable schedule, with none of their other seven opponents in the top 9.
Interestingly, the odds are very close between both teams, with Derby available at 8/5 and Millwall at 17/10. This game is a real test for Millwall, and Derby should be stronger favourites. Anything over 13/10 would represent good value on Derby.
AFC Wimbledon have recovered from a sluggish start to the season. At the end of September, they were winless, with three draws and eight defeats. However, since then, they have only lost a further twice, and have won five times. At home, they are unbeaten since the start of October, winning three times and drawing once.
They host Doncaster on Saturday. Doncaster spent most of the early part of the season on the fringes of the play-offs, but have fallen away into midtable recently. They have struggled away from home; despite winning 7-1 away at strugglers Southend, they have not won away in their other five away matches.
Despite this, Doncaster are odds on favourites at 10/11, with Wimbledon available at 3/1. While it would be a stretch to see Wimbledon winning, it would be no surprise to see them avoid defeat. Therefore the selection is a double chance bet on AFC Wimbledon to avoid a loss at 4/5.
Two selections come from League Two, on two more teams to avoid defeat against odds on favourites. The first comes from Cheltenham, where the Robins host Cambridge United. Cheltenham have only won one of their last five home games, against crisis club Macclesfield. They are good at preventing defeat; they have only lost once since the first month of the season, against second-place Forest Green Rovers.
Although Cambridge United have let us down twice before, they are on our selections today to return to the Abbey Stadium with at least a point. Cambridge have lost four matches away from home this season, but have played the teams in the top 9 very tough away from home, only losing once from four contests.
This game looks destined for a draw, but the selection is Cambridge to avoid defeat at 3/4.
Secondly, Mansfield Town travel to Crewe. Similarly to Crewe, they have won only one of their last five matches, against the league’s bottom club Morecambe. They have won five of their ten home matches overall, a solid return.
Mansfield is currently sat in 19th position, coming off an awful result last Saturday, losing 3-0 at home to Crewe. But this continues a season-long trend for Mansfield, as they have extreme splits between home and away matches. They have accrued 8 points at home, against 13 on the road. Away from home, they have only lost once in the last three months, against league-leaders Swindon.
While Crewe are rightly favourites here, and it is difficult to see them losing, the odds on Crewe to win at 4/6 appears far too short. Again, the selection is for Mansfield to avoid defeat at around 6/5.
The prices quoted in the analysis are from Sportingbet. Sportingbet is the world’s leading Sports betting, Casino, Poker and Games provider. Sign up today with this link to get a risk free £10 bet. As always, the prices quoted in the article were correct at the time of writing and may have fluctuated since.
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